The Big One

Patrick Ruffini has a new poll out comparing Republican '08 presidential contenders. He complicates it by adding in the "fantasy candidates" and figuring how well they do over all and who they are most likely to take votes from if they did enter the race. For example, I voted for Senator George Allen but given the choice between Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice and Allen, I'd go with Rice. Looks as if Rice could beat anyone out there.

Even among the Center/Libertarian crowd from Glenn Reynolds, Rice is a clear favorite followed by Guiliani. Rice v Guiliani shows Rice gaining 49.5 % of the vote while Guiliani nets 11.4%. Without Rice in the race he has a comfortable margin (45.3%) over his nearest competitor John McCain (at 12.3%). Ruffini's poll is still open so it will interesting to see if it changes much.

I think that Rice would do very well nationally. People know her name, she's sharp, articulate, good looking and has the rare ability to be matter of fact and gracious. Her closeness to the Bushes could be either an asset or a liability but I believe it would be an asset, especially as the economy is doing well and should continue to do so.

Social conservatives tend towards unhappiness at a pro-choice candidate, and some folks have speculated that Guiliani would have a more difficult time in the primaries because of it. Perhaps, but not to the degree projected. Guilani has name recognition and tough on crime creds; no real scandals (Bernard Kerik who?) . McCain while having good name recognition will come under fire for the "Senate 14" deal IF there is a nasty judicial battle and more importantly the travesty of Campaign Finance Reform which bears his name. You can't get money out of politics and it's potential to limit First Amendment rights among non-codified journalists will get attacked from right and left.